CHRISTIAN POLITICAL PARTY NATIONAL COMMITTEE issued the following announcement on May 20.
On May 12, the GOP won two special congressional elections handily: Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith 55 percent to 45 percent in the California 25th District, and Republican state Sen. Tom Tiffany beat his Democratic opponent, Wausau School Board President Tricia Zunker, 57 percent to 43 percent in the Wisconsin 7th District.1 Garcia’s win was especially important, as it lowered the number of House seats Republicans need to flip in order to take back control in November from 18 to 17.2
These special elections may also throw cold water on the idea that 2020 will be another “blue wave” election. Although you shouldn’t infer too much from any one special election — particularly strong or weak candidates or idiosyncratic local issues can matter more in individual races — special elections in the aggregate have historically been predictive of the national political environment. In other words, a party that consistently punches above its weight in special elections tends to have a really good November.
So what are special elections saying so far about 2020? Counting the two earlier this month, there have now been six federal special elections so far this cycle — not a huge sample size, but enough to detect whether Republicans or Democrats are consistently overperforming the seat’s baseline partisanship. Except so far, the final vote-share margin in the average special election has not been any more Democratic-leaning (or, for that matter, Republican-leaning) than the seat’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean score.
Original source here.
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